Zencargo Market Update: 9th September 2024

Ocean

• The drop in rates that began at the end of August has accelerated due to weaker-than-expected demand and aggressive moves by some carriers to capture market share. 
• While spot rates remain above 2024 long-term rates, the current pace of decline could alter this trend in the coming weeks. 
• In Week 36, capacity on the Asia-Europe route peaked at 286,000 TEUs due to the addition of extra loaders, but this is expected to drop to 200,000 TEUs by the end of September because of blank sailings tied to Golden Week.
• Congestion remains an issue in key transshipment ports like Singapore and Colombo, leading to operational delays and equipment shortages in some areas​.

Air

Central China to Europe:

• Shanghai (SHA): Space is expected to be very tight as the Mid-Autumn Festival Holiday approaches from September 15-17, leading to rate increases. It is advised to book space at least one week in advance to secure capacity.
• Ningbo (NGB): Rates are increasing and will continue through the holiday period. The final rate depends on actual flight availability, and spot rates are offered case-by-case. Early booking is recommended to ensure space availability.

North China to Europe:

• Tianjin (TSN): The market remains stable this week, with SQ offering better rates to LHR, though transit times are longer. Advance booking is advised due to space constraints.
• Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates with major airlines are expected to increase slowly in September. Dense cargo may qualify for spot rates, while volume cargo requires 7-10 days’ advance booking. Space is fully booked this week​.
• Qingdao (TAO): The market is tightening, with both rates and space becoming more constrained. Spot rates are available for dense cargo on a case-by-case basis, and early booking is recommended.

South China to Europe:

• Guangzhou (CAN): As peak season approaches in September, all airlines are marking up rates. High-density shipments may receive better rates. 
• Shenzhen (SZX): The market remains stable this week, but all shipments need to be checked with carriers on a case-by-case basis.
• Xiamen (XMN): Space is expected to be tight before the holiday period. Final rates should be confirmed based on actual flight bookings​.

Ocean

• The Asia-USA trade lane is seeing fluctuating conditions, with rates recently dropping for the East Coast. 
• Rates are expected to increase in the second half of September with Golden Week approaching.
• With talks still not yielding results, a potential ILA strike on October 1st poses a serious threat to East and Gulf Coast ports in the US, as workers stand firm in demands over pay and automation. The strike would affect key East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, including major hubs such as New York/New Jersey, Savannah, Charleston, Houston, Miami, and Port Everglades.

Air

Central China to USA:

• Shanghai (SHA): Space is expected to be very tight due to the upcoming Moon Festival Holiday from September 15-17, and rates are expected to increase. It is suggested to book at least one week in advance to secure space​.
• Ningbo (NGB): Rates to LAX and ORD are expected to decrease slightly this week, while rates to JFK remain unchanged. However, a rate increase is anticipated around the Mid-Autumn Festival, so early booking is recommended to secure space.

North China to USA:

• Tianjin (TSN): The market remains tight. Early booking is necessary due to limited space availability.
• Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates with major carriers are gradually increasing. Dense cargo may qualify for spot rates, and volume cargo requires 7-10 days’ advance booking. Space is fully booked through the weekend due to high demand.
• Qingdao (TAO): The market is stable, though space is tight to some key US airports such as BOS, JFK, and DFW. Rates have increased slightly, but airlines are still releasing spot rates for dense cargo on a case-by-case basis.

South China to USA:

• Guangzhou (CAN): As peak season continues, rates are increasing. Spot rates are available on a case-by-case basis depending on flight dates​.
• Shenzhen (SZX): Rates have increased slightly this week. All shipments need to be checked with carriers on a case-by-case basis.
• Xiamen (XMN): Space is expected to be tight before the holiday period. Final rates depend on actual flight availability and should be confirmed case by case.​

Ocean

• The market from the Indian Subcontinent to Europe remains tight.
• The impact of monsoon flooding in India has disrupted logistics, particularly at Nhava Sheva and Mundra, where over 50% of volume moves by rail. 
• Chittagong in Bangladesh continues to face significant congestion due to political unrest and severe flooding, affecting inland container depots and overall supply chain efficiency.

Ocean

• Rates from North Europe to the US East Coast have increased.
• Carriers are maintaining high utilisation rates for both North European and Mediterranean services, leading to rate increases in September, with a follow-up Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) is expected in October.

USA

• Los Angeles/Long Beach: 7 vessels waiting, with a 10-day dwell on the rail and 71% yard capacity.
• Oakland: 3 vessels waiting, with a 5-day rail dwell.
• Seattle/Tacoma: 9 vessels waiting, with a 12-day rail dwell.
• New York/New Jersey: 4 vessels waiting, with a 3-day dwell on the rail and 71% yard capacity.
• Norfolk: 5 vessels waiting, with a 3-day rail dwell.
• Savannah: Improved conditions with 7 vessels waiting, down from 12, and a 3-day rail dwell​

Benelux

Antwerp, Belgium

• PSA 913: Yard at 75 to 80% utilisation. Reefers at 65 to 70%.
• PSA 869: Yard at 65 to 70% utilisation. Reefers at 45-50%.
• AGW: Yard at 70 to 75%. Reefers at 60 to 65% utilisation.  

Rotterdam, Netherlands

• ECT: Yard at 65-70%.
• RWG: Utilisation at 70-75%. 

United Kingdom

Road/Rail

• New border controls between Dover and Calais, set to include the European Entry and Exit System (EES), could cost hauliers up to £1,100 per truck due to expected delays. 
• These new checks are predicted to cause significant disruptions, with potential delays of up to 14 hours for passengers, impacting freight flows and increasing costs throughout the supply chain.

European Bank Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

September 11 – Spain

September 15 – Slovakia

September 17 – Spain

September 20 – Germany

September 21 – Malta

September 22 – Bulgaria

September 23 – Bulgaria

September 24 – Austria

September 27 – Belgium

September 28 – Czech Republic

October 1 – Cyprus

October 3 – Germany

October 5 – Portugal

October 9 – Spain*

October 10 – Austria*

October 12 – Spain 

October 23 – Hungary

October 26 – Austria 

October 28 – Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, Ireland (Eire)

October 29: North Cyprus, Türkiye

October 31: Germany*, Slovenia

November 1: Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Croatia, France, Germany, Holy See (Vatican City), Hungary, Italy, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland*

November 2: Belgium*, Finland, Lithuania, San Marino, Sweden, Åland (Ahvenanmaa)

November 3: Russia

November 4: Russia

November 7: Belarus, Transdniestria (PMR)

November 8: Belarus

November 9: Spain*

November 11: Austria*, Belgium, France, Poland, Serbia

November 13: Montenegro

November 15: Austria*, Belgium*, North Cyprus, Saint Helena

*Not in all regions