GRIs have been implemented but will they stick?

Between Asia and North Europe, ocean carriers have announced GRIs (General Rate Increases) which come into effect this week, although early signs indicate that they will not be sustained by the market.

Some carriers have already begun offering discounts on the new increased rate for the second half of the month. The market’s willingness to support the rate hikes is facing even more scepticism, as demonstrated by Xeneta’s XSI index. It reveals that spot rates on the trade lane dropped by 1.5% in the past week.

Interestingly, no increase in blank sailings has been announced by carriers for August. This leaves potential for late or short notice blank sailings to be implemented to balance supply and demand and help sustain the rate increases.

Earlier in the year, carriers had attempted to introduce GRIs, although these have largely been eroded, and many analysts are predicting a similar outcome for the coming August GRIs.

China

Ocean

  • Following the fallout from Typhoon Doksuri we are sharing the latest Chinese terminal operations updates:
    • Ningbo: Average berth waiting time is 0.5 to 2 days due to a recent incident at Ningbo port and vessel bunching.
    • Qingdao: Average berth waiting time is 0.5 to 1.5 days due to port closure from bad weather.
    • Shekou / Yantian: Due to the impact of Typhoon Doksuri, the average waiting time is 0.5 days to 2 days.
    • Xiamen: The port was closed on July 25 due to Typhoon Doksuri.
  • While Chinese exports to the US and Europe have fallen, those to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East have risen. 
    • North America and Europe are currently in a destocking cycle amid low consumer demand, which is partially reflected in China’s export figures dropping by 25% to the US and 5% to Northern Europe. 
    • However, exports to other regions of the world have been experiencing growth, with CMA CGM Chief Finance Officer Ramon Fernandez stating that figures have been “rising by double digits to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.”

Air

Central China to USA and Europe 

  • From SHA to Europe and the US, rates have remained stable.
    • Ongoing C-Checks (aircraft compliance checks) have resulted in some flight rescheduling and cancellations; however, due to low cargo volume, this hasn’t impacted rates.
  • From NGB to Europe and the US, rates have remained stable. 
    • The final rate is offered on a case-by-case basis.

North China to USA and Europe:

  • From TSN to Europe and the US, rates have remained stable this week. 
    • Adverse weather conditions could potentially cause some delays this week.
  • From PEK to Europe and the US, rates have remained stable this week. 
    • Adverse weather conditions could potentially cause some delays this week.
  • From TAO to Europe and the US, rates have remained stable this week.

South China to USA and Europe:

  • From CAN to Europe and the US, rates have remained stable this week. 
    • All shipments will need to be checked with the carrier for rates on a case-by-case basis.
  • From SZX to Europe, rates have remained stable, while to the US, rates have decreased slightly. 
    • All shipments will need to be checked with the carrier for rates on a case-by-case basis.
  • From XMN to Europe and the US, rates have remained stable. 
    • All shipments will need to be checked with the carrier for rates on a case-by-case basis.
USA

Ocean

  • As mentioned in the ‘In Focus’ section, rates between Asia and the USA have risen for August due to GRIs. 
    • Spot rates,  especially to the US West Coast, have seen spikes, as many ships have been diverted due to ongoing labour issues in Canada. 
  • Congestion at US ports has improved in the past week.
    • Vessels waiting to berth at the port of LA and Long Beach have dropped to two vessels, meanwhile the delay on the railhead is down to 6 days.
    • On the East Coast Norfolk is still struggling with a backlog of vessels waiting to berth due to vessel bunching and adverse weather conditions, however this has decreased from 19 to 17.
Canada

Ocean

  • The Canadian West Coast continues to be hampered by ongoing labour disputes between the International Longshore and Warehouse Canada (ILWU) and the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA). 
    • Although a tentative agreement was reached earlier in the month, the proposed terms were voted down by the ILWU Canada union members, and the strike resumed on the 18th and 19th of July. 
    • The strike action has had severe and far-reaching impacts on the Canadian economy and supply chains as congestion mounts. Currently, 14 vessels are waiting to berth at Vancouver and 9 at Prince Rupert. 
    • However, it appears the dispute may be drawing to a close with recent reports stating the union and employers had come to a negotiated agreement over the weekend.
Benelux

Ocean

  • Yard utilisation at many European ports sits below 60%, yet another reflection of weak shipping demand. 
    • At the Port of Antwerp, utilisation sits between 55-60%. 
    • At Rotterdam Europe Container Terminals (ECT), utilisation is even lower, between 50-60%. Throughput at the port has also fallen by 8.1% for H1 when compared to 2022, with Drewry stating that rates between Rotterdam and New York are at their lowest level in 12 years.
UK

Ocean

  • Similarly, low yard utilisation levels are evident at UK ports.
    •  Both the Port of Southampton and London Gateway currently stand at between 50-55% utilisation. 
    • This reflects the weak consumer spending growth in the UK which has been reported for H1 this year.

European Bank Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

Aug 5 – Croatia, Spain*

Aug 7 – Ireland (Eire)

Aug 14 – Romania*

Aug 15 – Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, France, Germany*, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain

Aug 20 – Estonia, Hungary

Aug 29 – Slovakia

Sep 1 – Slovakia

Sep 2 – Spain*

Sep 4 – Luxembourg*

Sep 6 – Bulgaria

Sep 8 – Malta, Spain*

Sep 11 – Spain*

Sep 15 – Slovakia, Spain*

Sep 18 – Switzerland*

Sep 20 – Germany*

Sep 21 – Malta

Sep 22 – Bulgaria

Sep 24 – Austria*

Sep 25 – Switzerland*

Sep 27 – Belgium*, North Cyprus

Sep 28 – Czech Republic

Oct 1 – Cyprus, San Marino

Oct 3 – Germany

*Not in all regions

The route ahead

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