Zencargo Market Update: 27th January 2025

Ocean

• Rates have continued their decline into February, with carriers decreasing prices further to secure cargo before the Lunar New Year.
• February rates are projected to fall further due to oversupply, expected to drop below current benchmarks during the month.

• The ceasefire in Gaza has opened up short-term routing through the Red Sea. However, carriers are cautiously monitoring stability before fully capitalising on this route. Potential effects include:
  • Port congestion in Asia and Europe due to vessel bunching.
  • Temporary rate increases followed by long-term declines as capacity normalises.

• An excess of capacity continues to challenge the market, with scrapping efforts only accounting for 6–8% of capacity reductions. This mismatch persists despite carrier attempts to manage supply-demand dynamics.

• Reliability has shown consistent improvement month-on-month, now exceeding the 50% mark for Asia-Europe routes.

• New alliances are expected to begin operations in February, bringing potential changes to service offerings and rate dynamics.

Air

Central China to Europe:

• Shanghai (SHA): Spot rates  are still being applied during the Lunar New Year holiday. Bookings need to be secured at least one week in advance to ensure availability.
• Ningbo (NGB): Large shipments have slowed following the holiday, leading to a decline in rates. Spot rates are available, and bookings should be handled case-by-case.

North China to Europe:

• Tianjin (TSN): The market has slowed slightly, and rates are showing a slight decrease. KE/OZ/JL freighters are offering better rates with longer transit times to LHR. Space is fully booked until January 31, and bookings require 4-5 days’ advance notice.
• Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates remain elevated across most airlines. Dense cargo can access spot rates, but volume shipments may face flight splits. Booking 6-7 days ahead is essential to secure space, which remains tight until January 31.
• Qingdao (TAO): The market is stable this week, with sufficient space for shipments to most EU airports, including LHR. Spot rates are available for dense and volume cargo, with airlines releasing rates case by case

South China to Europe:

• Guangzhou (CAN): Market activity is low due to factory closures during theLunar New Year holiday. Spot rates are available but must be confirmed case-by-case.
• Shenzhen (SZX): Market conditions are normal, with deferred services to main EU airports offering competitive rates.
• Xiamen (XMN): Operations are limited during the Lunar New Year holiday. Rates and space are available but must be checked based on actual flight schedules.

Ocean

• Freight rates on Transpacific routes have seen significant decreases for the second half of January, with reductions observed across both West Coast (WC) and East Coast (EC) lanes. Market conditions indicate further adjustments as carriers manage supply-demand dynamics.

Air

Central China to USA:

• Shanghai (SHA): Spot rates are being applied during the holiday, with FBA cargo dynamics potentially affecting pricing. Bookings should be made a week in advance.
• Ningbo (NGB): Shipment volumes have dropped post- Lunar New Year holiday, resulting in reduced rates. Spot pricing is available, and case-by-case handling is recommended.

North China to USA:

• Tianjin (TSN): The market has slowed, leading to slight rate decreases. KE/OZ/JL freighters offer better rates for destinations like LAX/SFO/SEA, with earlier ETD options available. Space is fully booked until January 31, and advance bookings are required.
• Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates have decreased across most major airlines (CX/JL/NH/BR), although dense cargo can still access spot rates. Volume shipments may face higher rates and split flights, with space fully booked until January 31. Booking 6-7 days in advance is essential.
• Qingdao (TAO): The market to the USA is slightly slack this week, with space not overly tight to most US airports. Airfreight rates have dropped slightly, and airlines continue to offer spot rates for dense and volume cargo on a case-by-case basis.

South China to USA:

• Guangzhou (CAN): Market activity is low during the Lunar New Year holiday, with spot rates available upon request.
• Shenzhen (SZX): Rates remain steady, and space is available for both west and east coast destinations. Case-by-case negotiations are advised.
• Xiamen (XMN): Almost all factories and offices are closed due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Spot rates are applicable based on flight schedules.

Ocean

• Rates remain mixed for the first half of February, with some extensions and slight decreases observed. 

• The traditional peak season is ongoing and expected to last through February and March.
• Demand in North India is rising, particularly driven by exports linked to the grape season.

• Persistent congestion in transshipment ports, especially Colombo, coupled with delays at North Europe PODs, continues to disrupt schedules.

Ocean

• Slight softening in rates observed compared to early January, driven by an increase in capacity and moderate demand. Long-term contract rates remain stable, with cautious negotiations underway between carriers and shippers.
• Carriers continue blank sailings as they restructure services and gradually introduce new routes to balance supply with fluctuating demand.
• Persistent equipment shortages are noted in regions like Austria, Switzerland, Hungary, and Slovakia. Efforts are underway to reposition empty containers, with notable improvements in container flow management at major ports such as Rotterdam.
• Many carriers, including Maersk, ONE, ZIM, and EMC, have canceled ILA disruption charges following the tentative agreement between the ILA and USMX. However, the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) remains active due to sustained demand.

USA

• Los Angeles/Long Beach: 6 vessels waiting to berth, up by 2 from the previous week, with a 9-day rail dwell and yard capacity at 73%.
• Oakland: 4 vessels waiting, with an 11-day rail dwell reported.
• Seattle and Tacoma: 9 vessels waiting, up by 4 from the previous week. Rail dwell at 7 days.
• New York/New Jersey: 2 vessels waiting, with a 5-day rail dwell and yard capacity at 76%.
• Norfolk: 5 vessels waiting, with a 3-day rail dwell.
• Savannah: 2 vessels waiting, with a 3-day rail dwell.

Benelux

Antwerp, Belgium:

• PSA 913: Yard utilisation at 75–80%, with reefers at 65–70%.
• PSA 869: Yard utilisation at 70–75%, while reefers are at 45–50% utilisation.
• AGW Terminal: Yard utilisation at 65–70%, fluctuating depending on vessel schedules. Reefer utilisation also ranges between 65–70%. Cargo opening times are set 5 days before vessel ETA.

Rotterdam, Netherlands:

• ECT Terminal: Yard utilisation at 80–85%. Berth line-up experiencing high utilisation. Ongoing labour disputes linked to expired CLA may escalate to strikes, though no confirmed actions yet.
• RWG Terminal: Yard utilisation at 60–65%, with berth line-up fully utilised.

European Bank Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

February 3 (Monday): Ireland (Eire)

February 8 (Saturday): Slovenia

February 10 (Monday): Malta

February 16 (Sunday): Lithuania

February 24 (Monday): Estonia

February 28 (Friday): Spain

March 1 (Saturday): Spain

March 3 (Monday): Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Luxembourg

March 4 (Tuesday): Portugal

March 8 (Saturday): Germany

March 11 (Tuesday): Lithuania

March 15 (Saturday): Hungary

March 17 (Monday): Ireland (Eire)

March 19 (Wednesday): Austria, Malta, Spain

March 25 (Tuesday): Cyprus, Greece

March 31 (Monday): Malta, Spain

*Not in all regions