Zencargo Market Update: 10th March 2025

Ocean

• The March General Rate Increase (GRI) had limited impact, preventing further rate declines in early March. Demand remained flat, but carriers anticipate an increase in April. 
• Utilisation is at approximately 90%, however there is structurally more supply than demand. Blank sailings continue, with capacity swings of up to 90,000 TEUs weekly, but this has not balanced supply and demand. Space remains available, though short-notice bookings may face challenges.
• The reshuffling of carrier alliances has started to impact reliability on this route, with a general drop in performance due to the port congestion and weather issues. The latest preliminary schedule reliability numbers indicate:
  • Gemini: 88-100%
  • Ocean Alliance (OA): 15-35%
  • Premier: 0-67%
• Felixstowe’s reliability is expected to improve with reduced Maersk calls. MSC’s acquisition of the port is likely to strengthen its position in the UK market.

Air

Central China (SHA/NGB

• Shanghai (SHA): Market remains extremely tight, with high demand from general and e-commerce cargo. Space is very limited, requiring advanced bookings due to irregular flight schedules caused by strikes in France.
• Ningbo (NGB): Rates are increasing due to general strikes at major German airports, impacting capacity. Early booking is highly recommended.

North China (DLC/TSN/TAO/CKG/BJS)

• Tianjin (TSN): Market is stable, with better rates available for longer transit times. Advance booking of 4-5 days is required.
• Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates remain stable across major airlines. Dense cargo can access spot rates, while volume cargo needs 6-7 days advance booking due to limited space.
• Qingdao (TAO): Space availability remains moderate. Rates are stable, and airlines continue to offer spot options for dense cargo.

South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)

• Guangzhou (CAN): Peak season is ongoing, causing daily rate and space fluctuations.
• Shenzhen (SZX): The market is busy, with some airlines offering deferred service options at lower rates.
• Xiamen (XMN): Rates are trending upwards due to freighter cancellations, and capacity is constrained. Booking in advance is essential.

Ocean

• The market saw rate reductions in early March, with further softening expected in the second half of the month. However, long-term contracts remain stable.
• Demand is gradually recovering, with capacity stabilising above 90%. MSC is revising two of its US West Coast services, CHINOOK and ORIENT, adding port calls and expanding service capacity.
• CHINOOK will now include Ningbo and expand from eight to 12 port calls, covering Vung Tao, Haiphong, Yantian, Ningbo, Shanghai, Qingdao, Busan, Seattle, Prince Rupert, and Vancouver.
• ORIENT is adding Busan and Portland, adjusting its rotation to Qingdao, Ningbo, Shanghai, Busan, Long Beach, Oakland, and Portland.

Air

Central China (SHA/NGB)

• Shanghai (SHA): Space remains highly limited due to strong general and e-commerce cargo demand. Advance bookings are necessary.
• Ningbo (NGB): Rates are increasing, due to a large number of electronic exports to the U.S. this week. 

North China (DLC/TSN/TAO/CKG/BJS)

• Tianjin (TSN): Stable market with steady rates. Some carriers offer freighter flights with earlier departure options, but space must be booked well in advance by 4-5 days.
• Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates have increased across major airlines. Dense cargo can still secure spot rates. For volume cargo, 6-7 days are needed in advance of booking and flight splits are possible. 
• Qingdao (TAO): The market is stable this week and space is not as tight to the U.S. West Coast routes.  However, space is a little tighter to the U.S. East Coast. Rates remain the same as last week and airlines are still releasing spot rates for dense and volume cargo.

South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)

• Guangzhou (CAN): Peak season is in full effect, causing daily fluctuations in rates and space availability.
• Shenzhen (SZX): Market activity is increasing. All shipments should be checked with a carrier on a case-by-case basis.
• Xiamen (XMN): Rates are climbing due to freighter cancellations, and space remains constrained. 

Ocean

• Rate declines have mostly stabilised, with the anticipated GRI failing to materialise but slowing downward trends. However, a new GRI has been announced for later in March.
• Traditional peak season demand remains weak, largely due to poor grape harvests impacting export volumes.
• Equipment shortages persist, especially for 20ft containers in inland container depots.
• Congestion in Colombo has eased, improving transit times and reducing delays.

Ocean

• Demand remains strong from North Europe and the Mediterranean, with the majority of the first rotation of Gemini vessels sailing at full capacity. Carrier service adjustments continue to impact stability in the market.
• Many carriers are modifying their U.S.-bound services from Europe, with Southampton emerging as a key hub. Hapag-Lloyd is discontinuing direct U.S. West Coast services, while OOCL, HMM, and CMA are introducing new options for the U.S West Coast.
• Some shipping lines have reduced capacity, leading to higher demand for available slots.
• Northern European ports remain congested, impacting Transatlantic schedules. Ongoing carrier network adjustments are adding to operational delays.
• There are warnings that potential U.S. fees on Chinese-built vessels could disrupt Transatlantic trade. Some estimates suggest additional costs of up to $1,000 per container and a significant industry-wide impact.

USA

• Los Angeles/Long Beach: 4 vessels waiting to berth, with a 10-day rail dwell.

• Oakland: 3 vessels waiting (down by 3), 6-day rail dwell.

• Seattle/Tacoma: 2 vessels waiting (down by 8), 7-day rail dwell.

• New York/New Jersey: 4 vessels waiting, 4-day rail dwell.

• Norfolk: 4 vessels waiting, 3-day rail dwell.

• Savannah: 3 vessels waiting (down by 2), 3-day rail dwell.

Benelux

Antwerp, Belgium:

• PSA 913: Yard utilisation remains high at 90 – 95%, with reefer utilisation at 70 – 75%.
• PSA 869: Yard utilisation has increased to 65 – 70%. Reefer utilisation has decreased to 60 – 65%.
• AGW: Yard utilisation has improved to 65 – 70%, with reefer utilisation stable at 60 – 65%.
• Cargo opening times remain 5 days prior to vessel ETA.

Rotterdam, Netherlands:

• ECT: Yard utilisation has eased slightly to 80 – 85%, but second modalities remain under pressure.
• RWG: Yard utilisation remains high at 80 – 85%, with yard protection measures in place. Productivity remains high, and feeder demand continues at elevated levels.
• Delta II: Ongoing labour dispute between terminal operators and unions. Strike actions and slowdowns continue, impacting operations. However, vessels are still being handled.

Europe Public Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

• March 11 (Tuesday): Lithuania
• March 15 (Saturday): Hungary
• March 17 (Monday): Ireland (Eire)
• March 19 (Wednesday): Austria*, Malta, Spain*
• March 25 (Tuesday): Cyprus, Greece
• March 31 (Monday): Malta, Spain*, Spain*

• April 1 (Tuesday): Cyprus
• April 17 (Thursday): Denmark, Portugal*, Spain
• April 18 (Friday): Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France*, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland (Eire), Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands*, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden
• April 19 (Saturday): Bulgaria, Sweden*
• April 20 (Sunday): Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany*, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Sweden
• April 21 (Monday): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland (Eire), Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta*, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain*, Sweden
• April 22 (Tuesday): Cyprus*
• April 23 (Wednesday): Spain*, Spain*
• April 25 (Friday): Italy, Portugal
• April 26 (Saturday): Netherlands
• April 27 (Sunday): Netherlands, Slovenia