What to expect from carrier alliances in 2025

Since their origins in 1990, the alliances among shipping lines have had a major effect on the global logistics market. In the past, the 2M alliance alone, between Maersk and MSC, controlled 34.2% of all global trade. The announcement last year that 2M would break up in 2025 understandably sent shockwaves through the industry.

It’s in the nature of shipping alliances that what one does affects the others – and we’ve seen a flurry of news from carriers this year. In practice, the restructuring of carrier alliances is set to reshape major trade routes, create new service models, and affect everything from capacity to schedule reliability. All of these will have tangible impacts for shippers.

Here’s what the reorganisation of carrier alliances means for you, and how it will impact your supply chain strategy in the coming year.

Why carrier alliances matter

Carrier alliances are operational partnerships between shipping lines that allow them to share vessels, terminals, and resources, creating more efficient and reliable networks. The idea is that by collaborating, these carriers can offer broader service coverage, optimise schedules for efficiency, and keep costs down without independently expanding each of their fleets.

The other side of this is that shipping alliances have massive market power over certain routes, services and rates. 

While the concept of alliances is meant to smooth coordination and collaboration between these service providers, lines are also still in competition with one another. Changes in alliances also mean changes in the competitive dynamics of the market – which means efforts by providers to stand out from peers. This might mean new services, new rates or new sector focuses.

The new alliance landscape

The big shakeups in 2025 include the dissolution of the 2M Alliance between Maersk and MSC, and the creation of the Gemini Alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd.. Meanwhile, new alliances are popping up. 

Here’s what we know so far.

1. MSC : MSC is positioning itself to operate independently with an extensive network of direct port-to-port services. By February 2025, it will offer a massive network of services across Asia-Europe, Asia-Mediterranean, and Asia-North America lanes​. This will be good news for some retailers, with access to over 1,900 direct port pairs, making MSC an attractive choice for those who value simple, broad coverage and direct shipping​.
2. Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd):
   In an example of how new alliances will seek to distinguish themselves, this alliance is expected to focus on improving schedule reliability (which has bobbed around the 50% zone for some time), with a hub-and-spoke model designed to minimise direct port calls. While the number of loops Gemini offers may be fewer compared to other alliances, its goal is to achieve a 90% on-time service reliability. This could make Gemini particularly appealing for retailers who prioritise predictable transit times provided that their shuttle networks work at full speed and efficiently, even if it means fewer direct services.
3. Premier Alliance (ONE, Yang Ming, HMM):
   The Premier Alliance is another key player in 2025, offering a range of Asia-Europe and Asia-North America services, many in collaboration with MSC. Its strength lies in the lucrative transpacific and Asia-Europe lanes, and it will maintain a robust service network through vessel-sharing agreements with MSC​. For retailers, this means access to well-established Asia-Europe services, bolstered by the capabilities of MSC​.
4. Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSTCO, Evergreen, OOCL):
   Unlike the new alliances forming, the Ocean Alliance remains largely unchanged. It will continue to target the Asia-North America and transpacific lanes, with a heavy tilt toward these trades​. Retailers with a strong presence in these markets may well stick with the known quantity.

What does this mean for capacity?

One of the major concerns for retailers in 2025 will be how these alliances manage capacity. 

The influx of new ships, combined with strategic blank sailings, will affect how much space is available on key trade routes. While carriers like MSC will offer port-to-port services, other alliances like Gemini and Premier will focus on fewer, more reliable routes​.

The outcome will be some variability in capacity availability depending on the trade lane, at least in the short term. According to current estimates, MSC is expected to lead in terms of service offerings in the Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean trades, while the Ocean Alliance will dominate the Asia-North America lane​.

Meanwhile, the Gemini Cooperation is aiming to prioritise service reliability over sheer capacity. While this may limit the number of loops they offer, their commitment to a 90% schedule reliability could make them a safer choice for high-value or time-sensitive shipments​ – though this may well come at a higher price.

What does this mean for shippers?

The reorganisation of alliances presents risks and opportunities in 2025 for shippers. However, the increase in capacity due to new ship deliveries could help offset some of these costs by making space more readily available in others.

The bottom line is that choice of carrier will move from a simple question of route and capacity, to a strategic decision about what’s right for your supply chain. 

• Diversification will be key: Relying on a single carrier or alliance could be risky, especially with the reorganisation of services. The ability to work with multiple carriers can help you access the best routes and pricing – ideally through a partner that can help you book proactively to find the right carrier for each shipment.
• Plan ahead: As alliances roll out their new networks, retailers will need to plan their shipments well in advance to secure space and avoid delays. This may require a diversified strategy, prioritising reliability for high-value or in demand SKUs, while moving others via capacity-rich routes.
• Choose the right partner: Collaborating with a freight forwarder who understands the details and opportunities of these alliances can help you identify the best routes and carriers for your specific needs.

Working with an experienced freight forwarder can help you plan, design and adapt your strategies even in a changing market. Zencargo is the digital freight forwarder of choice for some of the world’s fastest-growing brands. With a global network of freight partners across the world, backed up by in-house experts and market-leading technology, we can help you understand the opportunities available and keep your supply chain moving when it matters.If you want to find out what the changes in alliances mean for your business, why not book a chat with one of our global logistics experts?