Navigating 2025: What shippers are asking

The global supply chain landscape is constantly evolving, with each year bringing new challenges and opportunities. As we approach 2025, supply chain professionals are already planning for the year ahead, leveraging lessons learned from 2024 to navigate the shifting dynamics of trade, capacity, and economic pressures.

In our recent webinar, Anne-Sophie Fribourg, VP of Global Ocean Freight and John Smith, VP of Global Operations shared their insights about lessons learnt in 2024 and risks and opportunities to look out for in 2025. 

During the webinar we received a number of questions from our audience, not all of which we had time to answer on the webinar. 

This blog aims to dive deeper into those unanswered questions, providing thoughtful analysis and actionable insights for the year ahead.

Do you think we’ll see another early peak season next year?

In 2024, we experienced an unusually early peak season due to a variety of supply chain disruptions, from labour strikes to geopolitical tensions. These events prompted shippers to prioritise preparedness, leading to an earlier-than-usual surge in freight activity. For 2025, the situation appears different. Economic forecasts suggest volume growth in line with global GDP projections. While some front-loading may occur due to preemptive measures against potential January disruptions, such as strikes, it is unlikely we will see the same early activity as in 2024. Without major disruptions, the peak season is expected to follow its regular timeline.

Which shipping lines will have the most capacity next year?

The global shipping landscape is set for a shake-up in 2025 with the introduction of new carrier alliances. MSC will remain the leader, holding the largest global capacity and operating largely independently, save for some vessel-sharing agreements within the Premier Alliance. The Ocean Alliance will continue to focus on key routes, including Asia-Europe and Transatlantic trades, while the Gemini Alliance is introducing a hub-and-spoke model. This new approach will centralise cargo movement through major hubs, many of which are owned by Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk. As carriers strategically manage capacity and alliances reconfigure, competition for market dominance will remain fierce.

What is the hub-and-spoke model?

The Gemini Alliance is set to adopt the hub-and-spoke model for its shipping operations in 2025. This strategy relies on central hub ports serving as primary connection points for cargo, with smaller ports (spokes) connected to these hubs via shuttle services.

For example, Tanjung Pelepas (TPP) will become a key hub in Asia, while Rotterdam will serve as a major hub in Europe. Mainline vessels will operate regular routes between these hubs, potentially reducing the need for additional port calls. This approach is designed to minimise delays caused by port congestion, a common disruption in global shipping. Feeder vessels will manage cargo transport to and from smaller ports.

In practice, cargo might be shipped by a feeder vessel from Qingdao to TPP, where it is transferred to a mainline vessel bound for Rotterdam. Once there, it would be transshipped onto another feeder vessel for delivery to final destinations like Felixstowe. By centralising operations at key hubs, the hub-and-spoke system improves efficiency and schedule reliability across the network.

What is Zencargo’s strategy next year in terms of the carriers you’re working with?

Zencargo’s approach for 2025 revolves around strategic diversification. By maintaining strong partnerships with key carriers Zencargo aims to ensure reliable service. Regional carriers will also play a role in offering flexibility and meeting niche demands. The focus is on schedule reliability, competitive rates, and a tailored approach to direct transit times. This diversified strategy ensures Zencargo can adapt to changing market conditions while providing customers with dependable shipping solutions.

What do means to have a Trump administration in 2025 and how it shapes the outlook for supply chains 

The possibility of a Trump administration in 2025 carries impacts for global supply chains. If policies such as increased tariffs on Chinese imports materialise, it could further reduce China’s share of U.S. imports, which fell from 40% in 2016 to 27% in 2022. 

Many businesses have started diversifying sourcing to Southeast Asia, with Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico becoming key players. However, these regions lack the infrastructure and manufacturing scale of China, making the transition gradual. For the U.S., a focus on nearshoring, particularly in Mexico, could create opportunities for regional supply chains while challenging traditional global trade networks.

How are you preparing for January especially regarding the US election results and the ILA strike?  

January 2025 presents two potential disruptors: the results of the U.S. presidential election and a possible strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). Zencargo is proactively preparing by exploring alternative routing options, such as shipping through the U.S. West Coast and leveraging rail networks. The ILA strike hinges on debates around port automation, a contentious issue that could significantly impact port operations if unresolved. By maintaining open communication with customers, planning ahead, and collaborating closely with carriers, Zencargo aims to minimise disruptions and keep supply chains moving efficiently.

Planning for 2025

As we look ahead to 2025, the challenges of the global supply chain remain dynamic and complex. At Zencargo, we partner with our customers to design agile and responsive supply chains that can seamlessly adjust to changing market dynamics while minimising costs and delays. Ready to plan for a successful 2025? 
Book a free strategy consultation with our experts today and ensure your supply chain is prepared for whatever the year brings.