By Anne-Sophie Fribourg, VP of Global Ocean Freight at Zencargo

Last week at TPM25, my Zencargo colleagues and I had the opportunity to network and meet with carriers, shippers, and supply chain leaders to discuss the state of global trade. The conversations were insightful and highlighted a clear reality: 2025 will be defined by uncertainty.

The Big Themes from TPM25

Geopolitical Uncertainty 

Global trade remains highly uncertain, driven by geopolitical tensions and shifting policies. This is particularly evident in the U.S. market, where a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico—originally set to take effect earlier this year— has been delayed yet again until April 2nd. 

Reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. are also set to take effect on the same date, adding further strain to trade relations. These evolving policies are already impacting long-term planning and decisions for businesses. 

The Impact of the US Port Tax on China-Built Containerships

One of the most pressing concerns is the proposed U.S. port tax on China-built containerships, which could add $1,000 per TEU to shipping costs. 

If implemented, this could lead to an industry-wide cost increase of $20 billion, equivalent to 20% of the current Transpacific ocean rates and an even higher percentage on the Transatlantic trade lane. This shift would have far-reaching consequences for shippers, affecting procurement strategies and supply chain cost structures.

Port Congestion: The Defining Challenge of 2025

The industry is no longer driven solely by supply and demand— port congestion has become a determining factor in rate trends and service reliability in 2025. With congestion expected to intensify in 2025, maintaining an efficient and competitive network will depend on infrastructure investment and operational resilience. Port efficiency will be a key differentiator for shippers seeking to avoid delays and unexpected costs.

The Return to the Suez Canal: A Carefully Managed Shift

A notable discussion at TPM25 centered around the return to the Suez Canal after a period of avoidance. However, this transition needs to be controlled and aligned across all major shipping lines to prevent volatility. The impact of this shift will be felt in several ways:

• Temporary congestion at key transit points
• Slower demand for Europe-bound cargo due to extended transit times
• Lower rates for at least two quarters
• Increased capacity withdrawals to stabilise prices

Carrier Alliances and the Evolution of Service Strategies

The formation of new carrier alliances is reshaping ocean freight dynamics. The Gemini Cooperation, for example, is targeting 90% service reliability but will likely only achieve this after three full operating cycles. Meanwhile, blank sailings will remain a tool for capacity management, ensuring schedule stability but also impacting available space for shippers.

Carrier Priorities for 2025: Network Stability and Market Share

Carriers are focusing on two key areas:

• Setting up robust service networks through strategic alliances
• Gaining market share by securing long-term contracts

In the Transpacific trade lane, rates are trending downward, which means carriers are looking at calculated risk-taking in tenders to capture volume while maintaining overall rate stability.

What Does This Mean for Shippers?

With shifting market conditions, contract negotiations for 2025-2026 will be more complex than ever. Rates will fluctuate, schedule reliability will be tested, and strategic decision-making will be critical.

At Zencargo, we are closely monitoring these developments to help businesses navigate the tender season with clarity and confidence. From analyzing rate trends to assessing service reliability, our team is here to support shippers in positioning themselves for success.

If you have questions about how to future-proof your ocean freight strategy, let’s talk.

The best way to prepare for the unexpected is to stay ahead of it.