Zencargo Market Update: 18th November

Ocean

• In the second half of November, rates have been extended from the first half to the second half of the month. 
• Service issues remain in Europe and Le Havre is the latest port to join the list of problematic ports with carrier services affected by congestion. 
• Feeders are taking 3 weeks to clear the backlog of cargo coming to the UK and the Port of Felixstowe.
• Rotterdam has reported a 7-day delay and Antwerp has reported delays and congestion due to maintenance work on the quay which is expected to last until the third week of December. 
• There are several last minute schedule omissions as vessels are swapping rotations or dropping cargo at nearby ports. 

Air

Central China to Europe:

• Shanghai (SHA): The market is extremely busy with space fully booked by ecommerce cargo prepared for Christmas as well as Black Friday. Rates are rising and cargo should be checked on a case by case basis.
• Ningbo (NGB): Similar to Shanghai, the market is tight, with rates continuing to rise. Shippers are advised to check space availability and rates case by case, with bookings at least a week in advance to secure space​.

North China to Europe:

• Tianjin (TSN): The market is busy and early bookings (5–6 days in advance) are crucial​.
• Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Capacity remains constrained, and splitting shipments may be necessary to manage demand​. Dense cargo can apply for spot rates, but bookings 7-10 days in advance are recommended. 
• Qingdao (TAO): Space is tight to most EU airports, especially London Heathrow. 

South China to Europe:

• Guangzhou (CAN):  Tight capacity persists, with rates rising. Spot rates should be confirmed based on actual flight dates​
• Shenzhen (SZX): The market is picking up, with rates rising for deferred services. Early booking is recommended. 
• Xiamen (XMN): Shippers should confirm rates and space case by case based on real-time booking​.

Ocean

• For the second half of November, FAK tariffs have remained the same as the first half of the month. 
• Congestion has also increased in the US and Canada, not helped by the strikes at Canada’s West Coast ports.

Air

Central China to USA:

• Shanghai (SHA):  E-commerce cargo is driving up rates significantly. Space is fully booked, and bookings should be made at least one week in advance​
• Ningbo (NGB): Rates are stable, but space is limited. Shippers should book early and confirm rates case by case.

North China to USA:

• Tianjin (TSN):  Bookings require 5–6 days’ notice.
• Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates are stable but remain high. Volume cargo may require splitting, and early booking of 7–10 days is advised​.
• Qingdao (TAO): Market remains hot and space is tight to most US AODs, especially to the East Coast. Airlines are still releasing spot rate for dense/volume cargo.

South China to USA:

• Guangzhou (CAN): Thanksgiving-related demand has tightened space, with rates now rising steeply.
• Shenzhen (SZX): Rates are rising and capacity remains tight, with all bookings to be confirmed on a case by case basis.
• Xiamen (XMN): Stable market conditions, with deferred service rates available, though final rate will depend on precise flight.

Ocean

• While demand has weakened due to the traditional slow season, space availability has improved. However, congestion at transshipment hubs like Colombo, Singapore, and Port Klang continues to cause delays.
• Shortages of 20ft containers in Delhi and Nhava Sheva remain a concern. Operational disruptions persist in Bangladesh, due to  strikes and protests by garment factory workers and transport workers.

Ocean

• Rates from North Europe – US East Coast are stabilising and capacity has reduced. 
• In Northern Europe, demand remains steady as the Christmas holiday season approaches and carrier utilisation is high, keeping rate levels stable across most services. Some carriers are reconsidering the October Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) due to the ILA strike.
• In the East Mediterranean, demand is stable, with high utilisation on certain services. However, some routes continue to experience blank sailings due to service reliability issues. Meanwhile, demand in the West Mediterranean has risen. With blank sailings contributing to full utilisation, carriers have announced further rate increases for November, extending the trend seen in September and October.
• The cellular fleet dedicated to Transatlantic liner services between Northern Europe/Med and Canada, the US, and Mexico has shrunk by 8.2% over the past year, with nearly 91,100 TEU slots removed from the trade. This reduction results not only from the closure of several loops but also from the replacement of larger vessels with smaller units.

USA

• A downward trend in rates is observed across both coasts in November. Despite some rate reductions, strong import volumes persist, with U.S. retailers preparing for an additional 350,000 TEUs in November and December​.
• As mentioned before, port congestion is increasing across the US. 
• Los Angeles/Long Beach: 6 vessels waiting, 11-day rail dwell, and 64% yard capacity. Congestion is gradually increasing following Piers 401 and 402 closures.
• Oakland: 5 vessels waiting, 5-day rail dwell. Delays persist due to late arrivals, but yard capacity remains manageable.
• Seattle/Tacoma: 8 vessels waiting, 6-day rail dwell. Yard capacity is stable but congestion continues to affect operations.
• New York/New Jersey: 4 vessels waiting, 4-day rail dwell. Yard utilisation has risen to 73%, with lingering congestion from previous ILA strike actions.
• Norfolk: 6 vessels waiting, 4-day rail dwell. Yard capacity stands at 50%, but berth availability is limited due to ongoing crane construction.
• Savannah: 12 vessels waiting, 2-day rail dwell. Congestion remains high, driven by elevated import volumes.

Benelux

Belgium – Antwerp:

• PSA 913: Yard utilisation at 75–80%, with reefer utilisation at 75–80%.
• PSA 869: Yard utilisation at 75–80%, with reefer utilisation at 50–55%.
• AGW (Antwerp Gateway): Yard utilisation at 55–60%, with reefer utilisation at 55–60%. Cargo opening times are five days prior to the vessel’s ETA.

Netherlands – Rotterdam:

• ECT: Yard utilisation stands at 65–70%.
• RWG: Yard utilisation remains at 70–75%.

United Kingdom

Road/Rail

• October saw a slight drop in transport prices, with the TEG Haulage Index decreasing by 1.57% to 125.4 and the Courier Index falling by 1.08% to 127.8. Despite this, year-on-year prices remain higher by 9.14% and 1.83%, respectively, reflecting strong market demand.
• Fuel prices have continued to decline, with diesel dropping by 2.68p per litre (1.89%) to 139.13p. This marks a 14.21% year-on-year decrease from October 2023, providing relief for the transportation industry​.
• The UK is set for its busiest parcel season ever, with nearly 1.3 billion parcels expected to be delivered, representing a 10.9% increase over 2023. This equates to 12 parcels per person across the UK and Europe. The surge is attributed to increased e-commerce activity and earlier holiday shopping trends. Retailers and couriers are scaling up operations to handle the volume spike​.

European Bank Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

November 4: Russia

November 18: Croatia, Latvia

November 20: Germany*

November 30: Romania

December 1: Portugal, Romania

December 3: Spain*

December 6: Finland, Spain

December 8: Austria, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain

December 9: Spain*

December 13: Malta

December 23: Estonia*, Latvia

December 24: Austria*, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark*, Estonia, Finland*, Germany*, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg*, Portugal*, Slovakia, Sweden*

December 25: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland (Eire), Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden

December 26: Austria, Belgium*, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France*, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland (Eire), Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta*, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain*, Sweden

December 27: Hungary, Ireland (Eire), Romania

December 30: Latvia

December 31: Denmark*, Estonia*, Germany*, Latvia, Sweden*

*Not in all regions